Sunday, October 17, 2010

A Third Down Dilemma

The Jets held on Monday Night against the Minnesota Vikings for a 29-20 victory after dominating the first half. New York led 9-0 at the break, but the score very easily could have been a 3 TD difference. Minnesota's defense has thrived in the red zone for the last few seasons, and the opportunities the Jets had in the first half couldn't be converted, which allowed the Vikings to stay in the game when they should have been put away.

When Brett Favre finally started to hit a few big plays, it highlighted the Jets' biggest weakness thus far in 2010; the defense's inability to get off of the field on third and long. When you remove the Buffalo game from the equation, the Jets defense has been terrible in obvious passing situations. On third down and 8 yards or longer, the defense is giving up a QB rating of 124.6 to Flacco, Brady, Henne, and Favre.

On Monday night, the first two Minnesota TDs came in situations like this one, first a 37-yard TD to Randy Moss on third and seventeen, then a 34-yard TD to Percy Harvin on third and nineteen. The TD passes gave the Vikings new life in a game they had no business winning. To the Jets credit, their last game was a game they most likely would have lost last season, and in most situations in the past. Losing a huge lead at home is one of the most deflating experiences a team can go through, but the Jets were able to make a huge play on defense when Favre and company had an opportunity to win the game. Dwight Lowery picked Favre and took it 26 yards to the house, clinching a four game winning streak for Gang Green.

After the game, Favre surprised onlookers by screaming, "Look at my penis!!! LOOK AT IT, DAMMIT!!!" He really didn't, but maybe Favre is developing into the wacky sexual predator we always though he could be. Brett Favre is indicative of the modern athlete's sense of entitlement, so it seems fitting that he's in the mess he's seemed to create for himself. I don't think most Jets fans will be shedding tears for Favre anytime soon.

Anyway, back to the Jets third down troubles...the reason for the Jets' failings on third down goes back to their very identity as a football team. The Jets leave their cornerbacks in man-to-man defense more than any other team, as Rex Ryan dials up more and more exotic blitzes. Ryan's problem is that he's no George Allen. Ryan has invited anyone who's interested to observe the Jets in practice, and many of their closest rivals are becoming outstanding at sliding their protection schemes towards the blitz, giving their QBs the time they need to pick us apart downfield.

The question becomes, does Rex Ryan abandon who he is and who he wants this team to be in order to fix the problem, or does he continue to bring pressure in all situations, even when it would be more prudent to play a little more conservatively? It seems like the least he should do is go back to the drawing board and see if there's a way to re-invent some of the schemes that have been so effective in the past, or, taking a page from the offense, blitzing more on first and second down, and dropping six and seven when the opposing offense is in an obvious passing situation.

Either way, it's hard to imagine that the Jets can continue to win, week in and week out, when their defense can't get off of the field when they desperately need to. Eventually, you'll run into a quarterback talented enough to bury you when you give them that many opportunities. This week, the Jets travel to Denver to face the Broncos before the bye week. If the Jets can win a fifth straight game, it will match the longest streak they've had in a decade, and they'll go into the bye knowing that all of their regular season goals are still on the table, including Rex Ryan's much ballyhooed goal of "leading the league in fucking wins."

Kickoff is at 4:05 pm today.

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