Sunday, November 21, 2010

Strengths and Questions

We're nine games into the 2010 season and New York Jets stand at seven and two, tied for the best record in the NFL. The Jets lack glaring weaknesses but have a few question marks that will help determine the rest of the regular season. Before we get to the questions, let's go over a few strengths.

The Offensive Line-The Jets have mostly been winning because of their strength up front. Damien Woody, Brandon Moore, Nick Mangold, Matt Slauson, and D'Brickashaw Ferguson have been the primary reason why the Jets have a top five running game, and have been able to keep Mark Sanchez clean through the first nine games. Any potential opponent of the Jets knows that they have to have an outside chance of bringing pressure and controlling the ground game to have a chance to win. So far, few opponents have been able to win this matchup. Today against the Texans, I expect the ball to come out of Sanchez' hand quickly to limit his exposure to hits, especially considering the problems the Texans have had in coverage.

Run Defense-The Jets adjusted well when Kris Jenkins went out in 2009 with season-ending knee surgery, and they were prepared for the same scenario this season. Just like 2009, Mike DeVito and Sione Pouha have stepped in and occupied offensive lineman to allow David Harris and Bart Scott to control the middle of the field. The Jets have yet to allow a hundred yard rusher this season, and the unsung play of the interior line is the primary reason. Last week against Cleveland, Peyton Hillis had a big first half, then was neutralized in the second half and overtime.

Pass Defense Outside the Numbers-There was a feeling among the Jets fan base at the start of the season that Darrelle Revis' absence from camp and the uneven play of CB Dwight Lowery and perennial whipping boy CB Drew Coleman, as well as the inexperience of CB Kyle Wilson was going to cost the Jets' pass defense. By and large, the fan base was correct for the first few weeks of the season, as Revis struggled to overcome a nagging hamstring injury, and the weak links in coverage, primarily Wilson, were being exposed weekly by every QB the Jets faced. As the season has progressed, Revis has returned to the form that made him the most effective defensive player in the NFL in 2009, and Coleman, Lowery, and Wilson are all improving quickly and have made huge plays in victory.

Somewhat lost in the shuffle has been the stellar play of Antonio Cromartie. The Jets threw Cromartie to the wolves early in the season, forcing him to handle Randy Moss by himself in the second half against New England, and for the entire Minnesota game. Cromartie responded tremendously well to the challenge, and he looks like a serious candidate to be offered a deal for 2011 and beyond, especially if he can continue to conduct himself professionally on and off the field. He has been a perfect fit for the bump and run scheme that Rex Ryan prefers.

There have been several areas of the team that have been inconsistent, and how they play the rest of the second half can be the difference between seven and nine and fourteen and two, and all the records in between.

Mark Sanchez-Through the first season and a half of Mark Sanchez' career, he has shown the normal growing pains of any young QB, especially one who started for only one full season at USC. Being a young quarterback is one of the toughest jobs in sports, as professional coaches and defenses expose your weaknesses every week, and your ability to adjust and learn, as well as the physical tools you bring to the table determine your success. The best friend of a young QB is not just a solid running game, but a solid team in all phases, which the Jets are. What should make the Jets excited is Sanchez' composure and improvisation. Poise and pocket presence are hard to quantify, and are therefore often discounted by the myriad of analysts we're exposed to as fans. So far, even with his struggles to remain efficient, Sanchez passes the smell test. His teammates trust him as a leader. When he is forced to make plays with the game on the line, he does so. It's not always pretty, but Sanchez is excellent on the move, and is already adept at identifying where pressure is coming from, then moving in the pocket and delivering a catchable ball. Last season, Sanchez through almost twice as many picks as TDs. This season, those numbers have been reversed. The jury must still be out on Sanchez until he shows he can be consistent, but anyone who doesn't notice the improvement isn't paying attention.

Pass Defense in the Middle of the Field-When the Patriots jettisoned Randy Moss early in the season, conventional wisdom was that the Patriots were hoping for addition by subtraction, but it was hard to imagine they would be more difficult to defend. Moss gave the Patriots an extra gear, a way to stretch the field against what most teams in today's game have difficulty with, which is a vertical threat that can find seams in a zone defense.

The problem for Belichick and company was that the Jets were built to handle Moss. Belichick recognized that the 2010 Jets had not just one, but two corners they could use on Moss to neutralize him. Since Tom Brady excels at small ball (hitting receivers short and letting them run after the catch) and since the Pats have several options at receiver and tight end that allow them to play this way, Belichick sent Moss packing. After watching the Jets dominate the Pats play after play in Week 2, it's hard to argue with his theory. Belichick knew he couldn't beat New York with the 2010 Pats, so he's trying the 2001 Pats instead. I'll give it to Belichick, he's pretty crafty. The idea of trying to cover the Patriots' tight ends with Eric Smith, or Brodney Pool, or Jim Leonhard is a little scary. The Jets haven't been able to handle tight ends all season. The game in Foxborough in two weeks should be much tougher than the first one.

The Running Game-The most important part of the 2009 Jets identity has been inconsistent of late. Using LaDainian Tomlinson like he's twenty-five instead of thirty-one with three thousand touches under his belt is starting to take a toll on his efficiency. LT hasn't been as effective over the last month, and Shonn Greene hasn't really been a factor until last week in Cleveland. When the Jets sent Alan Faneca packing last offseason, the effectiveness of the run game, especially to the weak side of the formation, took a hit. Matt Slauson has played fairly well as a replacement, and he's been pretty effective in pass protection, but he's not the run blocker Faneca was. Rex Ryan wants to pound the ball when the weather grows cold, and the running game's usage should increase as the regular season winds down. If the Jets can become more efficient in the run game, they will control the clock and the pace of the game. If the Jets want to win a title, the running game has to operate at a level approaching last season.

The Pass Rush-The Jets array of blitz packages have been nowhere near as effective this season. It seems every team we face is more prepared to slide protection towards the overloaded side. Bringing five and six people on third and long has been the wrong strategy thus far. Full credit must go to Rex Ryan and defensive coordinator Mike Pettine for adjusting on the fly and dropping seven and eight DBs in third and long out of necessity. The key to success in the NFL is recognizing when a philosophy doesn't fit your personnel, and making the necessary adjustments. It must burn Ryan to take a more passive approach, but, as he says, he's in the results business. Whatever works should be the plan. Mike Tannenbaum should be looking at pass rushing options for 2011, so Rex can go back to being Rex on third and long.

Keeping the Receivers Happy-The Jets have more talent at the receiver position that they've had in about twenty-five years. Not since the days of Al Toon and Wesley Walker have the Jets had an ability to win outside like they can with Holmes, Edwards, Cotchery, and Keller. The fact of the matter is that the Jets don't have enough footballs to keep everyone happy. The Jets want to run the ball and keep Sanchez around thirty attempts. The only way to keep all this talent happy is to win.

The play that Jerricho Cotchery made in OT against Cleveland just may make him a legend for life with Jets fans. You can't ask for more as a fan that to see an obviously injured player sell out his body to make a play. If I tore my groin, I would most likely be in the fetal position, not laying out to convert a crucial third down. As important as Cotchery is in the Jets scheme, his injury may have come at the right time. The Jets passing game seemed more effective early in the season without Holmes. It isn't Holmes fault, of course, as he has been huge at the end of the last three victories. Sanchez is more effective when he isn't as concerned about spreading the football evenly. Having four main options (when you include LT as a receiver out of the backfield) has served better than having five options for Sanchez. Until Sanchez fully trusts that he doesn't have to ensure that everyone has enough footballs to play with, less may turn out to be more. It will be interesting to see how he responds Sunday against Houston without Cotchery.

The Kicking Game-Nick Folk had been outstanding until last week. I would imagine if he struggles this week against the Texans, he may be competing for his job on Monday. The life of a kicker must be awfully tough. You're always a few misses from unemployment. I imagine there are antacids involved with your day to day life. Lots of them.

That's enough for now. Let's hope we come to play at home today. The Texans will be ready.

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