Saturday, December 25, 2010

The Blueprint

The New York Jets rallied with one their most complete performances of the season against Pittsburgh, winning 22-17 and moving a rather large step closer to their second consecutive playoff appearance under Rex Ryan. With a win this week against Chicago (or an Indianapolis or Jacksonville loss), the Jets are in. More importantly for Jets fans, the whole team, especially the offense seemed to re-establish the physical identity that carried them through the 2009 playoffs.

Since the start of the 2010 season, the Jets have gradually become more of a passing team. Mark Sanchez has already thrown 100 passes more than last season with 2 games remaining. As LaDainian Tomlinson started to wear down after his hot start, the Jets increasingly relied on Sanchez to produce points and big plays. This shift in philosophy, however, hasn't produced positive results on the field. The Jets would need to score 53 total points in the last 2 games to match the amount from last season's team, which was no offensive juggernaut. The 2010 Jets are outgaining the 2009 version in terms of yards, but they're leaving points on the field in the red zone every week. The combination of Sanchez's inaccuracy coupled with a lack of production in the red zone from the running game have led to many more 3's than 7's.

The Jets went into Heinz Field last week without having scored an offensive touchdown since Thanksgiving night against Cincinnati. Knowing they would need to control the clock to have a chance to beat the Steelers, the Jets pounded out 106 yards on the ground while Mark Sanchez took a week off from completing half of his passes to go 19 of 29 without a pick. Most of his throws were easy throws designed to move the chains and give the talented receiver corps a chance to make a play after the catch. Braylon Edwards played his best game in months, finishing with 8 grabs for 100.

When the Jets offense received a few shiny new toys in the offseason (namely Santonio Holmes and Tomlinson), the conventional wisdom was that the additions alone would make the Jets a more effective team. With their already stout defense, the Jets would be able to contend right away. At 10-4, it hasn't happened the way anyone expected. The Jets were fortunate to win several of their midseason games against lesser opponents, and the offense has been completely ineffective in every loss.

Most changes in the NFL come from necessity, and the blueprint from last week was no different. Being able to run and play the field position game is a weatherproof formula as long as you can bring your defense with you every week. The Jets stayed committed to the ground against the Steelers a week after throwing it 44 times in a loss to Miami. The defense gave ground but didn't give up any huge plays, and, in the end, survived.

Expecting more snow, wind, and bitter cold in Chicago, and nursing Sanchez and his damaged wing, I expect the Jets to again attempt to establish the run against a good run defense. If they are successful, the Jets will have gained back all of the confidence they lost in back-to-back division losses. They have been at their best under Rex Ryan in exactly this situation. They're on the road and many of the experts have chalked up last week's win to a lack of Polamalu. If they can win running the football on the road against two solid teams like Pittsburgh and Chicago in bad weather, then there's no reason not to be brimming with confidence heading towards January football.

Merry Christmas everybody!

Kickoff is tomorrow at 1.

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