Friday, January 7, 2011

The Rematch

As Adam Vinatieri's game-winning field goal went sailing through the uprights to clinch the #5 seed for the Indianapolis Colts, the New York Jets realized that their next playoff appearance would be a return trip to Indianapolis, the scene of their last playoff appearance. The Jets lost to the Colts, 30-17, after holding a halftime lead in a much more competitive game than was originally anticipated.

The Jets lost CB Donald Strickland in the first half and RB Shonn Greene at the start of the second half to injury. The two injuries were the biggest factors in the second half turnaround for the Colts. Without Strickland, and with Lito Sheppard benched, Peyton Manning found his third and fourth options to the tune of 377 yards through the air with 3 TD. Without Greene, the offense lost it's identity in the second half. The ground game that had controlled the action in previous playoff victories against Cincinnati and San Diego was stopped cold. The Colts actually ran for more yards than the Jets in that game, 101-86.

When Mike Tannenbaum went to work this offseason, his motives for adding key pieces was the AFC Title Game last season. The Jets had issues in 2009 with any team that could make plays to their third and fourth options, so Tannenbaum went out and got Antonio Cromartie from the Chargers and drafted Kyle Wilson in the first round. The Jets couldn't generate pressure with four pass rushers last season, so they acquired Jason Taylor from Miami to add another edge rusher. Mark Sanchez didn't have many options outside that could make yards after the catch, so they traded for Santonio Holmes from the Steelers. And when the Jets decided to let Thomas Jones go in the offseason, they acquired LaDainian Tomlinson from San Diego and drafted Joe McKnight from USC to try to fill the void from Jones and Leon Washington's departure.

The moves have had mixed results. The Jets are a better team than they were in 2009, even if they don't make it as far in the postseason. The offense has become more of a well rounded threat than last year, even if it's cost them some of their identity as a ground and pound offense. The defense slipped from last season, but they're still one of the best units in the league, even without Kris Jenkins and Jim Leonhard.

What's in store for tomorrow night, besides antacids? The experts at ESPN and the NFL Network clearly believe that the Jets don't have much of a chance to advance to New England in the divisional playoffs, but I feel the Jets have a much better chance than they had last year. The Colts have struggled all season, giving up more than 24 points a game, opening 6-6 before ripping off four straight wins to take the AFC South. They are without Dallas Clark and Austin Collie for the rest of the season. They give up 4.6 yards a carry, although the Indy defense was much improved against the run the last 4 weeks of the season.

I expect the Colts to sell out to stop the run tomorrow night, so there should be opportunities to throw on first down, especially the short throws that Sanchez has lived on since the Pittsburgh game. I would expect (or at least hope) that Brian Schottenheimer will take advantage of the Cover 2 by using Dustin Keller in the middle of the field. Also, Shonn Greene must get 20 touches tomorrow. Greene was built for this time of the season, and his effectiveness between the tackles will dictate the pace of the game. I also wouldn't mind seeing Joe McKnight get an opportunity to get a portion of Tomlinson's touches. LT hasn't looked as sharp as McKnight did last week since the early season.

The Jets have to figure out a way to pressure Manning. The pass rush has been an issue all season, and should be the first aspect of the team that needs to be overhauled in the offseason. The Jets need a dynamic edge rusher, the type of player who can win one-on-one matchups and make the blitz schemes more effective. But, that's for next season.

For now, we have to dance with what brought us to the postseason. The Jets have every reason to feel confident at Indianapolis on Saturday night. This team has proven to themselves that they can play with any team in the league. Three straight road playoff wins is a daunting task, but they have the juice to beat any possible opponent if they play the type of smart, physical football we all know they are capable of playing.

Kickoff at Lucas Oil Stadium is at 8pm tomorrow night.

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