Since I'm off to South Padre Island for the 4th of July and I don't know if I'll get a chance to post tomorrow, here's my two cents on Saturday night's main event from Vegas. Thanks to Fedor Emelianenko's loss last weekend, there's little doubt that the Brock Lesnar/Shane Carwin match is for heavyweight supremacy regardless of the promotion. This is great news for anyone who doesn't want the garbled alphabet-soup mess that boxing provides us in most divisions.
Lesnar is obviously a monster, but anyone who has seen Carwin fight can tell you that he is legit and should be even money against Lesnar. Lesnar will not enjoy the size advantage he has in most fights, as Carwin has to cut to get to 265 and should enter the octagon on Saturday night at the limit. Yahoo sports has a feature about how Lesnar has had to change his diet following his bout with diverticulitis and no longer walks around at 300. He was supposedly 275 last week which should prevent him from having to have a major cut immediately prior to the fight.
Shane Carwin is also a former college wrestling champion, so Lesnar will most likely want to keep the fight standing, where no one has found success against him. However, I don't think that Lesnar has been with anyone close to Carwin's level of striking, and I think that Lesnar will be in serious trouble once Carwin lands any of the strikes that have spelled the end for his previous 12 opponents. I like Carwin by strikes in the first round.
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