I've always enjoyed the opening day of the season. The league office, sensing that there are millions like me, has made the opening weekend a special weekend, with a Thursday night game featuring the defending champs at home, and a Monday night doubleheader. The opening tilt of this year's Monday night doubleheader features the Jets and the Baltimore Ravens.
Normally, I temper my expectations for the Jets, knowing that what I see on opening day will go a long way towards determining what to expect for the coming season. Who wins or loses is not necessarily that important. What's more important are general things you take away from the game, thinks like...can we run the ball on third and short? Can we protect the passer up the middle? When we blitz, do our corners look overmatched? Can our QB make good decisions in obvious passing situations? The answers to these questions will go a long way towards determining the long-term success of any team, certainly more than whether or not your team wins their first game.
The Ravens are a tough matchup for the Jets, mostly because their defense is a carbon copy of ours, which makes sense given that Rex Ryan was running their defense for several years before joining our organization. The Ravens have added some receivers through free agency and trades, they have a outstanding young RB in Ray Rice, and a developing young QB in Joe Flacco. Sound familiar?
The Jets are in much better shape than they were several weeks ago now that Darrelle Revis has been paid to his liking and has joined the team. For the uninitiated, Revis is probably the most important piece on our defense. Most defenses take their best cornerback and place him on the offense's second best receiver, then double-team the offense's best receiver with a corner and a safety over the top. Revis is so solid in coverage that he can single team the other team's best WR and take him out of the game, which allows the Jets to play zone defense on the other side of the field, and free up other defensive backs for the overload blitzes that have become Rex Ryan's calling card.
Before Revis came back, I had started to believe that the pundits might be right, that the Jets might be a 6-10 or 7-9 team. With Revis back, as long as Sanchez avoids mistakes and continues to improve, the Jets should be a 10-win team at least. I wouldn't be surprised if they got off to a slow start and were hovering around .500 at midseason, but I expect them to be one of the best team's in the league by January, the proverbial team that no one wants to play in the postseason. If we can get there, that is.
As for the local team, I think the Carolina Panthers are going to be better than most people expect, and I expect them to play well and win today. First of all, their opponent today, the New York Giants, are still a mess on defense. Provided that the Panthers are fully healthy up front, they should be able to control the line of scrimmage and control the clock. The Panthers lack playmakers on defense besides the excellent Jon Beason, but John Fox knows how to coach team defense, and the Panthers should block and tackle well enough to win 9 or 10 games this year.
Whatever your plans today, enjoy the wings and copious amounts of cheese in various forms, and, more importantly, enjoy the next 5 or so months of pro football. Given the present labor situation, next year's offseason may be longer than normal.
Also, sometime during the season, I hope to launch my NFL history project using whatifsports.com. I'm having a hard time finding the time (as you may have guessed after witnessing my non-prolific posting style as of late), but once I crank it up, it's going to be totally hot. Especially if you're into stats simulation (and I know that you are!). I hope to have a recap of what we've learned today sometime this evening. Enjoy the action!
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