Like Christmas Morning

I've always enjoyed the opening day of the season. The league office, sensing that there are millions like me, has made the opening weekend a special weekend, with a Thursday night game featuring the defending champs at home, and a Monday night doubleheader. The opening tilt of this year's Monday night doubleheader features the Jets and the Baltimore Ravens.

Normally, I temper my expectations for the Jets, knowing that what I see on opening day will go a long way towards determining what to expect for the coming season. Who wins or loses is not necessarily that important. What's more important are general things you take away from the game, thinks like...can we run the ball on third and short? Can we protect the passer up the middle? When we blitz, do our corners look overmatched? Can our QB make good decisions in obvious passing situations? The answers to these questions will go a long way towards determining the long-term success of any team, certainly more than whether or not your team wins their first game.

The Ravens are a tough matchup for the Jets, mostly because their defense is a carbon copy of ours, which makes sense given that Rex Ryan was running their defense for several years before joining our organization. The Ravens have added some receivers through free agency and trades, they have a outstanding young RB in Ray Rice, and a developing young QB in Joe Flacco. Sound familiar?

The Jets are in much better shape than they were several weeks ago now that Darrelle Revis has been paid to his liking and has joined the team. For the uninitiated, Revis is probably the most important piece on our defense. Most defenses take their best cornerback and place him on the offense's second best receiver, then double-team the offense's best receiver with a corner and a safety over the top. Revis is so solid in coverage that he can single team the other team's best WR and take him out of the game, which allows the Jets to play zone defense on the other side of the field, and free up other defensive backs for the overload blitzes that have become Rex Ryan's calling card.

Before Revis came back, I had started to believe that the pundits might be right, that the Jets might be a 6-10 or 7-9 team. With Revis back, as long as Sanchez avoids mistakes and continues to improve, the Jets should be a 10-win team at least. I wouldn't be surprised if they got off to a slow start and were hovering around .500 at midseason, but I expect them to be one of the best team's in the league by January, the proverbial team that no one wants to play in the postseason. If we can get there, that is.

As for the local team, I think the Carolina Panthers are going to be better than most people expect, and I expect them to play well and win today. First of all, their opponent today, the New York Giants, are still a mess on defense. Provided that the Panthers are fully healthy up front, they should be able to control the line of scrimmage and control the clock. The Panthers lack playmakers on defense besides the excellent Jon Beason, but John Fox knows how to coach team defense, and the Panthers should block and tackle well enough to win 9 or 10 games this year.

Whatever your plans today, enjoy the wings and copious amounts of cheese in various forms, and, more importantly, enjoy the next 5 or so months of pro football. Given the present labor situation, next year's offseason may be longer than normal.

Also, sometime during the season, I hope to launch my NFL history project using whatifsports.com. I'm having a hard time finding the time (as you may have guessed after witnessing my non-prolific posting style as of late), but once I crank it up, it's going to be totally hot. Especially if you're into stats simulation (and I know that you are!). I hope to have a recap of what we've learned today sometime this evening. Enjoy the action!

Training Camp begins...without Revis?

By all accounts, it appears that Darrelle Revis intends to miss the start of training camp, risking the $20 million in guarantees he has left on his current deal. With the premier of Hard Knocks less than 2 weeks away, this storyline is sure to dominate the show.

I have a confession to make...I fucking hate talking about contracts. They are the easily the most boring aspect of pro sports. I don't know who is right in this scenario, and I don't care. The facts (or as close as I can estimate) are that, from the Jets' point of view, Revis held out for a deal his rookie year, and now that his base pay is low for this season (which he wanted, a front-loaded deal), he wants more money. He has three years left on a deal that he wanted so badly, he held out for it. And now it's not good enough.

From Revis' point of view, he's set to make a base salary of $1 million a year, and, since he's the best player on the best defense, he deserves to make more than the highest-paid player at his position, who makes about $15 million a season. After witnessing the horrifying injury that former Jet Leon Washington suffered last year, it doesn't serve Revis to perform for such a low amount of money, with no further guarantees. Plus, GM Mike Tannenbaum promised him a new deal, and if the Jets can't guarantee the new contract against injury and skill (which they can't within the rules set in place in the absence of a cap), then they need to pay him a lump sum to keep him happy.

Can the Jets do that? Sure, they can pay him a lump sum bonus to try to make him happy, but I doubt they will. Owner Woody Johnson and Tannenbaum don't want to set a precedent with the other Jets who are unhappy, and they feel like if Revis can do this to them now, what happens if the team wins a championship? Can't the whole team hold them hostage the same way?

The 400 lb. gorilla in the room is the Jets cash flow position currently. There is plenty of speculation that the Jets currently lack the resources to pay a lump sum to Revis, given the fact that they've just built an enormous new stadium and have yet to sell all of the PSLs that they thought would go like hotcakes. Perhaps there isn't enough in the till to fork over a huge bonus currently.

Where do I stand? Normally I'm on the side of the player in situations like this, since they assume so much risk just lacing them up every week. I think Revis is picking the wrong time to make this stand, and he's going to do irreparable damage with a portion of the fan base that wants players to honor their contracts, regardless. All I care about is the well being of the team. If Revis does anything to screw this season up, I'll be pissed, and I won't be alone.

I'm not like most football fans my age (and younger). Most of the fans in my age group are going to spend countless hours over the next few weeks analyzing every preview magazine and website they can get their hands on for an edge in their fantasy football draft, which will happen sometime in the next month.

I don't play fantasy football.

In fact, the idea of rooting for the Bears' third WR to have over 55 yards receiving this week so I can win a "matchup" with another couch potato doesn't interest me in the least, and runs contrary to everything that football is supposed to be about. I could just see myself having to draft Wes Welker or Brandon Marshall, or another skill position player on a rival team, then rooting for that player to perform, against the best interests of the Jets.

I don't need fantasy football to make the game more interesting to me. I almost feel bad for the guys (and girls) that do. There is plenty happening every Sunday in the fall to hold your interest if you like football without having to play make-believe GM with 9 other people.

Because I give my full attention to a real team as opposed to a fantasy team, perhaps I have more invested in this situation than most. If it goes bad, as it has before, there is no rooting interest in place to take my mind off of the disappointment.

I hope Revis shows up for camp today at 5:30 pm, so he's not technically a hold-out, but I'm not holding my breath. Like most Jet fans, I just hope the situation works itself out before it becomes yet another distraction for the 2010 team.

Ryan and Tannenbaum extended...Revis talks begin again

More good news from Jets HQ yesterday as Woody Johnson signed head coach Rex Ryan to a 2-year extension and re-signed GM Mike Tannenbaum to a 5-year contract, which means that the brain trust of the franchise is under contract until 2014. In addition, the Jets have once again started negotiating with their best player, CB Darrelle Revis, on a new contract. If the Jets and Revis are unable to come to terms on a long term deal before the start of training camp tomorrow, the hope is that they can increase the $1 million base salary that he is to receive this season as a stop-gap measure until after the season. Hopefully, a new deal or an increased base salary for this season will satisfy Revis enough to bring him to training camp on time.

It's an unusual time to be a Jets fan, if for no other reason than the fact that some portion of the fan base is typically dissatisfied with the front office. In my three decades of following the team, only the brief reign of Bill Parcells in the late nineties provided the same piece of mind. You can make a pretty good argument that the fan base feels better now than we did then, only because there was always the feeling that Parcells was only going to be with the club for a minute (which was fairly accurate, as he recorded 3 years as coach and 4 as GM).

Parcells was like the sports equivalent of your first pretty girlfriend, meaning that he was fun to call your own, but it was only a matter of time before he got a better offer and left you. Since he left New York after the 2000 season, he had a similar tryst with the Cowboys before settling in Miami. I don't think any Jets fan feels like the Ryan/Tannenbaum combo is going to leave for another team. They have both shown a commitment to make the organization a place that players want to play and coaches want to coach, a dream destination. They have the full confidence of the fan base, for the foreseeable future.

The Media Finds A Narrative

Sports is truly the toy department of life. Anyone who is fortunate enough to find their livelihood from the world of sports should understand this right off the bat.

Sports media is just like the media at large, only that they are fortunate enough to be covering events that don't carry the same gravity as terrorism, or war, or our crumbling infrastructure. We shouldn't seem surprised when the same pitfalls occur in sports media as occur in the media at large.

One of the most popular trends in the news media today is for a storyline to be created, then parroted by all of the other voices in media. The most expensive undertaking for a news organization is investigation, because it requires significant overhead, and because it often doesn't yield results. Both government and corporations have found that they can publish news releases and have the media reprint them verbatim, because it's cheap and easy.

Once one news organization has constructed a perspective, you will find other news organizations copying that perspective. Why? Well, what's easier than taking someone else's idea and trying to make it your own? It's the new national pastime.

What does this have to do with the Jets? The popular refrain over the last few days is that the Jets have a little too much hype and a few too many questionable character guys to succeed. This was actually the narrative I was expecting, and I would imagine that Rex Ryan and company should have been expecting the same thing. In a 24-hour timeframe several days ago, there was the Mike Lombardi Kentucky analogy, followed by a Colin Cowherd show where he wasn't "buying" the Jets, followed by Bill Simmons saying that this season had "6-10 disappointment written all over it."

Being a sports fan in 2010 means that you must maintain an uneasy alliance with ESPN, for better or worse. Whether you like it or not, the ESPN brand is omnipresent, and simply getting sports news and programming requires you to be exposed to however they want to spin the sports world to you. Too often, both their on-air and online talent takes their exposure as something of an endorsement. Colin Cowherd actually encourages groupthink (are you in the herd?). Bill Simmons has taken his regional bias and made a cottage industry out of it.

As a sports fan, as long as you take these talking hair-dos for what they are, they are relatively harmless. Cowherd and Simmons are possessed of no special knowledge about sports above the level of a fan. As a matter of fact, I'm still waiting for any bit of expertise about anything from Cowherd. At least Bill Simmons has some grasp of the NBA salary cap for the purpose of transactions. Neither one is going to give you an actual "football" reason as to why they have an opinion about your team. Simmons is normally just left with comedy, telling us that the reason that Peyton Manning doesn't succeed is because of a face he's making. I wish I was kidding.

I don't blame these guys. Most sports fans would like to be compensated for the endless hours we spend engrossed in our interests. You're only a fool if you expect any of these personalities to provide you with an actual insight, which they're not capable of. Mike Lombardi should do better, though. He's an actual ex-front office employee. He should be able to provide me with a "football" reason as to why the Jets won't succeed in 2010. If I want a strained analogy about Kentucky basketball, I'll read Bill Simmons or listen to Colin Cowherd. And, trust me, I don't want a strained analogy, and neither do a lot of fans like me. We know enough football to handle the truth, even if the personalities in the media don't.

The fact of the matter is, most of the Jets fans I read online haven't put all of their eggs in the 2010 basket. The Jets have a solid core of talent around age 25 (Mark Sanchez, Shonn Greene, Nick Mangold, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, David Harris, Darrelle Revis, etc.) and if the moves that GM Mike Tannenbaum made in the offseason don't pan out, this team will be built for the next few years as well. There's no need to panic. I've been waiting for thirty-three years, and if I have to wait one or two more, I think I'll live.

We're #4! We're #4! We're #4!

The NFL Network has been counting down the 32 teams from #32 to #1 over the last month, devoting about a 10-minute segment on their nightly show, Total Access Live. This ranking was determined by a vote of the fans, so it's more of a gauge of how the rest of the football-viewing public views your team. As we progressed through the league's teams starting at #32, I expected the Jets to be considered a top 10 team through a combination of how we finished the season and the acquisitions that were made to improve the club.

The Jets finished 2009 at 9-7. Down the stretch in December and January, they played their best football of the season, and were also fortunate to close the season with two opponents that didn't share the same incentive to perform. The Colts rested their starters in the 3rd quarter of their game with the Jets, and the Jets rallied from behind to win. The Bengals followed with a half-hearted effort the following week, and the Jets rode the momentum all the way to the AFC Title game.

So, there's reason enough to be excited by my team's prospects for 2010. The fans of the NFL Network agreed and ranked the Jets at #4 entering 2010. For the teams within several spots of the Jets, the experts on set provided clear football-based reasons why they agreed or disagreed with the fan assessments.

But, when the Jets were up, the NFL Network's Michael Lombardi and Solomon Wilcots spent the 10-minute segment blasting the Jets selection. Both of these "insiders" claimed that there are too many character risks on the Jets team, too many guys with a "me-first" attitude that won't buy in to the team message when it's time to lace them up.

Lombardi wrote, "New York Jets: If Denver reminds me of Butler University, then the Jets remind me of the University of Kentucky. The Jets, like the Wildcats, are extremely talented, with many different egos who might only play together for one year and have the potential to explode at any point during the season. Jets coach Rex Ryan and Kentucky coach John Calipari might not look the same, but they both are master motivators and recruiters who don't mind handling an eclectic collection of players. The question you must ask yourself about the Jets is the same one you ask about Kentucky when you fill out the office pool in March -- can they get past the Sweet 16? I never have Kentucky in my Final Four, so I cannot put the Jets there."

While I don't begrudge Lombardi his opinion on the Jets, I beg to differ with his methodology. The Kentucky analogy is strained, simply because while the acquisitions the Jets made in the offseason may be around for only one season for cap reasons, there really isn't much of a question as to whether or not the guys the Jets signed can actually play. What will determine future success in the NFL for new Jets like Antonio Cromartie and Santonio Holmes are not the numbers they put up, but rather how well they fit into the team concepts the Jets have developed under Rex Ryan.

And Mike Tannenbaum understands that completely.

The Jets risked very little to get Cromartie, Holmes, or vets like Ladainian Tomlinson and Jason Taylor. As a rule, it isn't the risks your team takes, but rather the price they have to pay for the risk. There's a reason why most teams shy away from top-10 draft picks. If you swing and miss at the top of the draft, the price you pay for that miss is tremendous, as you now have a huge contract on your books and you're getting very little in value for your money. Tannenbaum knew that he could go after the pieces he required, and, if the pieces didn't pan out, the Jets weren't stuck with a big contract or a missing high value draft pick.

If the Jets have a successful year, win 10+games and make a deep run in January (and hopefully February), and Holmes, Cromartie, and the rest of the acquisitions are productive players, then all of the new Jets will reap the financial reward, regardless of the individual numbers. Taylor and Tomlinson only need to be efficient, neither is being called upon to play full-time, or carry the load at their position. Cromarite and Holmes only need to fit in, stay out of trouble, and play like the rest of the league knows they can. I'm sorry, I don't see how these goals run contrary to the goals of the team at large.

From my seat, as objectively as I am capable of being about my beloved Jets, the front office took a 9-7 team that made a run and significantly upgraded several positions at very little risk. The only positions that the Jets turned over that may under-perform are left guard and kicker.

Letting Jay Feely go was necessary for the Taylor signing, as the Jets had to give up a free agent to sign one thanks to the "Final Four" rules the league adopted for the offseason. Nick Folk is a question mark, but if Taylor is productive in this scheme, the front office has done the right thing. As for Alan Faneca, his pass production was slipping quickly, so it's misleading to simply refer to past Pro Bowl appearances. If second-round pick Vladimir Ducasse performs well quickly, left guard won't be thought of as a downgraded position.

The rest of the moves the front office has made are significant upgrades. The normal caveat for health aside, the Jets should be a much better team in 2010. The coaching staff, especially Rex Ryan, welcome the pressure of expectations according to all of the media exposure they've courted in the offseason.

Anyone who has followed the Jets for any length of time is fully aware of the myriad of disappointments inflicted upon the fan base, but I think, at least if the fan sites are indicative of our collective mind set, we all feel pretty good about our chances. The players report this weekend for training camp. I think we're ready.

One down, three to go

The Jets took the first step towards handling their most serious contract issues yesterday by signing D'Brickashaw Ferguson to a six-year, $60 million extension. The new deal features $34.8 million in guarantees, which is a record total for an offensive lineman.

Ferguson is one of the four Jets who are most mentioned for new deals this offseason. I am a firm believer that one of the most important aspects of successful offense in the NFL is offensive line continuity. Every assignment that an O-line has is a group assignment, and the familiarity of having the same five guys up front year after year is a comfort few teams can afford in the modern era. While the left tackle position isn't as important as it was in the days of mostly seven-step drops while the defense was always lining up their best pass rusher at right end (the QBs blind side if he's right handed), it's still the most important position on the offensive line, and Ferguson has established himself as one of the top 5 (or so) tackles in the league.

As to why Ferguson was first, instead of Mangold or Harris (or even Revis), I would imagine it has something to do with how well the market is established for left tackles. If the Jets had their way, Revis would have been first, especially since he's been the squeaky wheel this offseason. But, given the uncertainty of the collective bargaining agreement and Revis' willingness to wait until he's bowled over with a huge offer, Revis may wind up playing the waiting game for the dollars he feels he deserves.

If I were a betting man, I would think that Mangold would be next. Mangold may already be the league's best center, and he's shown a willingness to discuss his contract situation openly. From a PR perspective, signing Mangold quickly would further demonstrate the front office's willingness to spend to ensure future success.

I don't want to wish the summer away (especially considering some of the waves I've caught the last few days), but I wish we were kicking the season off tomorrow. This is easily the most anxious I've been to see a new Jets team since 1999. We need not revisit how that turned out.

RIP Don Coryell

We lost one of the true innovators in the game yesterday when Don Coryell passed away at the age of 85. Coryell was known for his efficient and effective passing game, first with the 70's St Louis Cardinals and, more famously, with the "Air Coryell" San Diego Charger teams from the early 80's. He was one of the first coaches to recognize the matchup problems an offense can create by consistently splitting the tight end wide and using the size advantage to both control the ball through the air and take chances down the field. His Charger teams were a joy to watch, and, although he never won anything beyond a division crown, he helped to progress the game to the modern passing free-for-all we see today. For better or worse.

Coryell never had a defense good enough to advance to a Super Bowl or win a title, but he'll get another chance in my NFL history replay. Perhaps whatifsports will be kinder than history was for him.